US Propane Supply

OAKHURST, N.J. (DTN) --- Gulf Coast PADD 3 propane/propylene supplies have fallen for over three months amid strong export demand, leaving stocks at their lowest level in over 20 months and contributing to the lowest nationwide stocks in more than eight months, the latest Energy Information Administration data show.

During the week profiled exports continued higher, up 133,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.480 million bpd, up 257,000 bpd from the same week in 2020. For the four weeks ended Jan. 15, EIA reported U.S. propane/propylene exports at 1.384 million bpd versus 1.180 million bpd in the same period in 2020.

Total domestic propane/propylene supply posted a 12th consecutive weekly draw, sinking 6.23 million barrels (bbl) to 59.818 million bbl, the lowest level since the week first week of May 2020 bbl while 25.8% below the corresponding week in 2020.

Gulf Coast PADD 3 propane/propylene stocks tumbled 9%, falling 3.036 million bbl to 31.924 million bbl, the lowest level since March 15, 2019 at 31.180 million bbl. Regional stocks are a sizable 40% lower than the same time last year.

Midwest PADD 3 inventory was drawn down a sixth week, dropping 1.936 million bbl to 16.719 million bbl, a 31-week low and 9.7% lower than a year earlier while East Coast PADD 1 supply eroded further, down 1.179 million bbl to a 32-week low 6.329 million bbl, 3.3% above a year ago. Stocks in the Rockies and West Coast held lower, down about 79,000 bbl to 4.847 million bbl.

EIA reported implied propane/propylene demand dropped 225,000 bpd during the week profiled to 1.879 million bpd, up 417,000 bpd from the same week in 2020. For the four weeks ended Jan. 15, demand at 1.860 million bpd was 28.2% above the corresponding four weeks in 2020 while cumulative demand at 1.992 million bpd was a sharp 34.1% above a year ago.

U.S. refiner and blender net production of propane/propylene declined 45,000 bpd in the week profiled to 2.295 million bpd, 62,000 bpd lower than a year ago. Four-week average output at 2.305 million bpd was 100,000 bpd below the same time last year.

Gulf Coast PADD 3 net production of propane/propylene dropped 113,000 bpd to 1.305 million bpd while Midwest PADD 2 output held higher, up 17,000 bpd to 504,000 bpd.

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